An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning

[Chris Fortune]

Have an inexplicable urge to dream about the Bayesian theorem?  Have an hour or two?
Well then, read, and be amazed by ....

An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning

Bayes' Theorem
for the curious and bewildered;
an excruciatingly gentle introduction.

By Eliezer Yudkowsky

http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html

"...  Bayesian reasoning is very counterintuitive.  People do not employ Bayesian reasoning intuitively, find it very difficult to
learn Bayesian reasoning when tutored, and rapidly forget Bayesian methods once the tutoring is over.  This holds equally true for
novice students and highly trained professionals in a field.  ..."

"... Here you will find an attempt to offer an intuitive explanation of Bayesian reasoning - an excruciatingly gentle introduction
that invokes all the human ways of grasping numbers, from natural frequencies to spatial visualization.  The intent is to convey,
not abstract rules for manipulating numbers, but what the numbers mean, and why the rules are what they are (and cannot possibly be
anything else).  When you are finished reading this page, you will see Bayesian problems in your dreams. "

_______________________________________________
Bogofilter mailing list
Bogofilter at bogofilter.org
http://www.bogofilter.org/mailman/listinfo/bogofilter